The Redbird Menace


The Strange Case of Mike Matheny

I don’t know if anyone noticed, but something’s been going on over in the sports section of STLtoday.  It began a week ago, with reports that former Cardinals catcher Mike Matheny would be interviewed as a possible replacement for Tony La Russa.

Perhaps this didn’t come as a huge surprise to a lot of people.  Matheny was a well-respected leader on the team many years ago. He was hard-nosed and competitive.   Even then, there was talk that he would make a good coach or manager some day.  But on closer examination, it was a little unusual.

Matheny hasn’t been a manager in the minors, like Ryne Sandberg, Chris Maloney, or even Joe McEwing.  He hasn’t been a coach with the current Cards club like Jose Oquendo or Joe Pettini.  And he certainly doesn’t have the big league pedigree of Terry Francona or Joe Maddon.

Matheny’s coaching experience, as far as I know, is limited to a few years as a spring training instructor and a series of videos for Protege Sports.  Does that mean he’d be a bad manager?  Of course not.  I’m actually an advocate of signing an inexperienced manager because someone without a history is going to cost less.  And I don’t think that the manager is terribly important.  As long as he gets along with his players and doesn’t make too many horrible mistakes, he probably has less effect on the success of the team than the backup catcher or mopup reliever.  There’s no reason to break the bank on a manager.

I’m in a pretty small minority with that viewpoint, however.  So it was a bit unusual to me that the Cardinals, fresh off a WS victory, would consider replacing a high profile manager like La Russa with a complete rookie.  I didn’t think too much about it, though.  I honestly thought that they were interviewing Matheny as a courtesy or a curiosity.  At that point, I assumed that Oquendo, Sandberg, and Francona were the real candidates.

Then STLtoday featured an article which detailed Matheny’s interview with the Cards.  This piece highlighted his positive attributes, addressed his lack of experience, and was quick to point out Matheny’s bonds with Dave Duncan, Yadier Molina, and of course Albert Pujols.

Once again, this was only slightly unusual at the time.  But now, almost a week later, there haven’t been any similar articles about the other candidates.  There have, however, been stories considering the merit of hiring an inexperienced manager as well as a Bernie Miklasz article contemplating Matheny as a potential choice.

If you’re as cynical as me, you realize that STLtoday might be floating a trial balloon.  They might be preparing Cardinals fans for what they already know or suspect: Mike Matheny is the frontrunner to replace Tony La Russa.  We’ve certainly seen it before.  Rasmus’s departure came on the heels of various stories about his difficulty with the Cardinals coaching staff.  McGwire was floated as a potential hitting coach in the news before he was hired.  Are we seeing that same thing now?  And why?

Why Matheny?  Why would the Cardinals–who have spent the last 16 years demonstrating that they value the position of manager far too much–hire a completely inexperienced skipper?

Two possibilities come to mind:

1. This may be an unfortunate response to a crisis of leadership.  The Cardinals have been Tony La Russa’s team for so long that they might not know how to live without him.  Perhaps they hope to keep his reign alive as long as possible by hiring a figurehead manager, and allowing Duncan and McGwire to make the real calls.  This isn’t a particularly flattering analysis for Matheny, but it is something that should be considered.  Matheny is a blank slate, and perhaps the Cardinals want to shape his future with the help of La Russa’s old coaches.

Of course, if this was the goal, why not hire Joe Pettini?  He’s filled in for La Russa numerous times.  He probably knows La Russa’s style better than anyone but Duncan.  He’d be the natural fit if you wanted to ensure maximum continuity.  Which leaves me with…

2. This is Mozeliak’s power play.  And it’s really goddamn interesting.  When Walt Jocketty was dismissed following the 2007 season and replaced with Jon Mozeliak, I assumed the new GM was nothing but a puppet for Tony La Russa.  Jocketty left over disputes with management.  Mozeliak was an org team player.  Throughout his time with the Cardinals, he’s been at La Russa’s beck and call.  He traded Brendan Ryan and Colby Rasmus.  He acquired Matt Holliday, Ryan Theriot and Lance Berkman.  The media made no attempts to conceal where these moves truly originated.  La Russa wanted these players (or he wanted them gone) and Mozeliak made it happen.

Now La Russa’s gone.  There’s a power vacuum.  And I think this is a surprising move from Mozeliak to come out of the shadows and establish that he’s no longer just an apparatus of a larger-than-life manager.

How do I figure this?  A little tidbit that has come out into the public  eye since this search began.  Mike Matheny has been working for Mozeliak, in the GM’s office, for the last year or so.  Think about this quote from the above-mentioned Miklasz article:

“He’s also served as an adviser to Mozeliak. An unofficial assistant GM, if you will.”

Interesting, right?  Pettini and Oquendo are acolytes of La Russa.  They worked on the field with him.  McEwing and Sandberg are managerial prospects from the White Sox and Phillies, respectively.  Terry Francona would bring his own people in.  But Mike Matheny?  He’s been working with Mozeliak.

There is still no predicting who will be the Cards’ manager in a few days.  But I think that Matheny’s sudden ascension to front-runner shows that Mozeliak is ready to make the Cardinals his team.  For better or worse.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 



Jake Westbrook and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Trade
August 2, 2010, 3:10 am
Filed under: Baseball | Tags: , , , ,
It’s been a while since I posted anything.  There are a few reasons for that.  First of all, I happened to write two lengthy fictional posts about starting pitchers for the Cardinals which ended with those two pitchers getting injured.  And then those two pitchers were actually injured.  And they are still injured.  I’m not a superstitious person, but this gave me some pause.  Second, I started working on a novel and that took precedence over blogging about the Cardinals.  Third, the Cardinals just got depressing.  Even though they’re still in the playoff hunt (and thus a lot less depressing than some other teams) they’ve been playing with a sort of listlessness that makes watching the games infuriating.  I started paying attention the MLB at-bat feed rather than the actual game because there’s only so many times you can see someone swing at a Bud Norris “pitch” and miss.

But now Kyle Lohse is back to pitching again.  I’m done with my novel.  The Cardinals are playing better baseball, though they still seem befuddled by certain pitchers.  It’s time I start this back up again.  And what a time to start up, because the Cardinals have made an excruciatingly bad trade.

I ask you this: is there anyone out there that really, truly thinks it was a good idea to trade Ryan Ludwick for Jake Westbrook?

Bernie Miklasz noted the following in his article discussing the trade:

Since the start of the 2008 season, Ludwick ranks second in RBIs, third in homers and fourth in slugging percentage among NL outfielders.
Let’s just let that sink in.  We traded this guy for Jake Westbrook.  Second in RBIS basically means nothing, Ludwick spent a lot of that time hitting behind Albert Pujols, who is on base all the time.  But third in HR?  Fourth in SLG?  An argument could be made that Ludwick is one of the top 10 outfielders in the NL.  And we traded him for Jake Westbrook.

A few Jake Westbrook facts:

Jake Westbrook has a 4.65 ERA.  This is not good. In offense-heavy years, this is hovering around average.  In 2010, this is definitely below average.  But of course, ERA doesn’t really show you the whole picture so…

Jake Westbrook has a 4.67 FIP and 4.41 xFIP.  Both of these stats take a varying amount of luck out of ERA and calculate it based on strikeout/walk/flyball/HR percentage.  While they don’t tell you how many runs a pitcher has given up over an average of 9 innings, they do a great job of telling you how many runs he will tend to give up over an average of 9 innings.  It also tells you that his ERA isn’t really predicated that much on luck or stadium effects.  He really is below average.

Jake Westbrook won’t pitch 9 innings anyway.  The few people who see a silver lining in this trade frame Westbrook as an innings-eater, a guy who the Cards needed because Garcia is going to pitch far more than he ever has, Carpenter is fragile, and the rotation needs stability.  But Westbrook is coming off Tommy John surgery, didn’t pitch last year, and probably has an innings ceiling just like Garcia.  He’s averaged only six innings a game.

Jake Westbrook isn’t signed for next year and won’t even be a Type B free agent.  In the last updated Elias rankings estimations by mlbtraderumors.com, Westbrook was nestled somewhere between Vin Mazzaro and Derek Holland.  He was far short of luminaries such as Brian Bannister and Josh Outman, who has not even pitched this year.  He gives the Cardinals nothing past this season.  Ryan Ludwick was under team control for 2011.

Basically the Cardinals traded an above average OF with one more year of arbitration for a 2 month rental of a below average starting pitcher.

In a vacuum I have no problem with either acquiring Westbrook or trading Ludwick.  Westbrook isn’t the prototypical Duncan project.  He already throws a sinker.  But he’s better than Jeff Suppan.  Ludwick was getting pushed out by Jay and was going to be expensive next year.  I get that.  But why this trade?  Certainly they could have gotten more value for Ludwick who, again, is third in the NL in home runs among OF over the last 2+ years.   Maybe they could have swung the prospects for a better pitcher.  Or a middle infielder.

And even more certainly, they could have acquired the obviously below-average and overpaid Westbrook without trading one of their best hitters.

The way the trade went down even proves the latter point.  The Cardinals sent Ludwick to San Diego, who sent Cory Kluber to the Indians.  Kluber is a 24 year old righthanded pitcher who is, like any decent 24 year old pitcher should, dominating AA batters.  He’s doing well but he’s old (24) for his level and he doesn’t have a great track record.  His career minor league ERA is 4.29 and his career minor league FIP is 4.00.  And he’s always been a little old for his league.

Did the Cards have anyone like this?  Of course they did.  Hell, PJ Walters is pretty close to Cory Kluber.  He’s a year older, but he’s followed almost exactly the same career path, succeeding in the minors as a slightly older prospect.  Walters’s career ERA/FIP are even better than Klubers  (3.66/3.75) in more innings.

Charles Fick in AA/AAA is the same age as Klubel and, again, has a similar career.  Who the hell is Charles Fick?  Yeah, I don’t really know either.  But that’s the point. Cleveland essentially took a nobody for Westbrook. A PJ Walters or Charles Fick. Why did we have to trade Ludwick?  We didn’t.  It was a stupid trade.  We could have and should have gotten Westbrook for a song.  Instead, we traded our starting RF.

That’s not a move that a contending team makes.



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